The day before his midterm in philosophy, John is cramming like mad to catch up on all the studying he didn't do over the first part of the semester. While he is heading back from the bathroom, he hears some of his friends playing cards. Since he can never pass up cards and beer, he joins in on the game. Five hours later, he realizes that he has an hour to go before his exam and that he hasn't finished his studying (or gotten any sleep). 

John crams for another half hour and then heads off to his final. He takes the final and then goes back to his dorm and sleeps for twelve hours. When he goes to class next time, he is amazed that he received an "A". John concludes that he'll get "A"'s on all his exams if he does the same thing. After all, it seems clear to him that staying up late and drinking beer causes him to do well. So, when his next exam in philosophy arrives, he stays up all night playing cards and drinking beer. He goes home, confident that he has gotten another "A". When he goes to class, he is horrified that he has failed the exam. He was so sure that he would get an "A" and when he goes to talk to the professor, she tells him he should have come to class more often so he could have learned to avoid his error in reasoning.DivisionIgnoring a Common CausePost HocConfusing Cause and EffectDivision: This is a wrong answer. John is not reasoning about parts or wholes.Ignoring a Common Cause: This is a wrong answer. While John is engaging in (poor) causal reasoning, he does not appear to be ignoring a common cause that caused both his "A" and his drinking and card playing. There could be some such factor, but there is no reason to suspect there is one.Post Hoc: This is the right answer. John concluded that his staying up playing cards and drinking beer caused his "A" on the exam, but he did not have adequate evidence to support his claim. Hence he was not (as he found out) justified in drawing the conclusion he did.Confusing Cause and Effect: This is a wrong answer. While John is drawing a causal conclusion, he is not confusing a cause with an effect.It is quite clear (even to John) that John's "A" on the exam cannot be the cause of his playing cards and drinking beer all night. What sort of causal error is John making?3